Triangle Housing Market Report -- Issue 01-09

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

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Al’s Market Power Index for Buyers remains at a "7" and the Seller's negotiating power remains at a "3".  Buyers continue to have much more negotiating leverage than the sellers do in price segments above $250,000.

Goodbye to 2008!  While the Triangle entered the slowdown late, we did see significant impact on the housing market in the last half of 2008. Wake Forest, whose high inventories I have noted several times in these reports, issued 69% fewer building permits in 2008 than it did in 2007.

Growth, Growth:  Importantly, people and companies continue to migrate to the Triangle area. Allied Van Lines recently reported that North Carolina had the 2nd highest number of net inbound migrations in 2008 - 2nd only to Texas. And, according to the Triangle Regional Partnership, in the June-August 2008 timeframe, $1 billion of new and expanding company investments were announced that are estimated to create 1,700 new jobs.

Mortgage Rates:  Rates are in the 4.5% to 5.5% range

An Early Look at 2009:  We expect 2009 sales to be similar to 2008, but with a slower start.  Thus far in 2009, the number of homes under contract has grown to its highest level in 3 months.  Showings activity appears to be up as well. 

Implications for You:  We realize that many of you are "waiting" to address your real estate goals.  Interestingly, you may find it to your financial advantage to act now because of low interest rates and the many good inventory choices.  For example, we know of a 2 year old, 4 BR, 3200 sq.ft. home in Wake Forest that was originally listed at over $500,000 and is now offered at $399,900!  Our market will turn quickly when it turns, particularly if inventories continue to decline, and homes such as this one will be snapped up.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?   Click to E-mail those to us

Need a Realtor� to help you with a specific property or transaction.  E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

4th Quarter 2007

4th Quarter 2008 

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.614 Billion $1.023 Billion arrow - DOWN  Down 37% Dollar volume for the full year 2008 was very near 2004 levels. Full year unit volume is down 17% from 2004 levels - appreciation explains the flat dollars while unit volumes were down. As has been the case all year, our current market is similar to the 2003/2004 markets.
Total Number of Homes Sold 6,829 4,394 arrow - DOWN  Down 36%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

4th Quarter 2007 Ending

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments

17,426 17,473 arrow UP   Flat Our inventory levels have stopped increasing. In Nov. and Dec. the levels dropped over 1,500 homes. This, indeed, is good news for all of us.

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

4th Quarter 2007 Ending

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments

10.8 14.6 arrow UP  Up 35% Demand continued slow throughout the Quarter, a result of the financial crisis and the lack of buyer confidence. However, we saw another positive sign in January 2009 as the months on hand dropped
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Under Contract" and "Current Actives"

Segment

 4th Quarter 2007

4th Quarter 2008

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments

Listings Under Contract

88 Days

98 Days

arrow UP  Up 11% The Quarter was tough throughout as days on market continued to grow. Fortunately, the beginning of 2009 saw some improvement
All Other Active Listings

118 Days

133 Days

arrow UP  Up 13%

 

Average Sale Price

County / Region

4th Quarter 2007

4th Quarter 2008

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments

Wake County

$260,326

$263,113

arrow UP  Up 1.1% Pricing data remains mixed. Based on our closed transactions, we believe that prices have softened 5%+  in many of the market segments above $200,000
Total Triangle

$239,202

$231,966

arrow - DOWN  Down 3.0%

 

Showings

4th Quarter 2007Ending

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend vs. Q4 2007

Comments 

144,396

115,750

arrow - DOWN  Down 20% Not surprisingly, showings remained slow throughout the Quarter. While we have not seen data for 2009 yet, it appears things are picking up a little.

 

More Interesting Charts and Info

We have created an in-depth "State of Triangle Real Estate" presentation as an outgrowth of our work this newsletter. Based on feedback from those who have seen it, we are confident that your non profit, business, or private group will enjoy and benefit from seeing this work.  We have 20 and 40 minute versions available, although the length is dependent on the number of questions. There is no selling involved and you will enjoy our practitioner stories.  Please contact us if you have interest.

 

 

Source data from Triangle MLS, Inc., Stacy P. Anfindsen of S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors   � Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2008