Triangle Housing Market 4th Quarter Report

Issue 01-10

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

buyers6.gif sell4.gif

 

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Al’s Market Power Index:  Buyer's power remains at "6" and Seller's power remains at "4" at the 4th Quarter's end.  Buyers have the leverage in most but not all segments.

Two Distinct Markets in Power Ratings: 

  • The price segments under $300,000 have little excess inventory so the sellers have nearly as much negotiating power as the buyers.  
  • Those price segments from $300,000 - $1 million+ continue to be over supplied so buyers have more negotiating power. Above $500k the inventory problem is acute but slowly lessening.

Mortgage Rates:  Rates are in the 4.75% to 5.25% range

The News is Getting Better:  Our overall assessment is that the Triangle market is stable and slowly improving.  Inventories were declining for all of 2009, the result of reduced numbers of new listings and increasing closings. Showings are also up versus 2008 as it seems more buyers are returning to the market.  Clearly, the home purchase tax credits are a driver of the increased activity. 

2009 Full Year Summary:

  • Total Triangle sales were $4.9 billion vs. $5.8 billion last year
  • Average Number of Homes on the Market dropped 14% from 2008 year ending as we make progress to a more balanced market place
  • Appreciation will be likely be negative for 2009, however, year ending data is not yet available 
  • While full year 2009 showings were down from 2008, the 2nd half of 2009 was significantly stronger than the 2nd half of 2008. This is an important sign of a "turn".

Before you decide to sell or buy, please give us a call for up to the minute market information. Pricing is quite volatile these days so it is important for you to know the pricing dynamics before buying or selling.  Our data and practitioner based market knowledge will give you confidence in your decisions.  We are also providing complimentary home market evaluations to those who wish to know where there property values stand today.  Call or e-mail us.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?

E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

4th Quarter 2008

4th Quarter 2009 

Trend

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.065 Billion $1.260 Billion arrow UP  Up 18% Finally!  Our sales exceeded 2008's same quarter by a significant percentage.  
Total Number of Homes Sold 4,560 5,749 arrow UP  Up 26%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

4th Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments

18,511 15,784 arrow - DOWN   Down 15% Listings inventory dropped 15% from Q4 2008, equaling the second quarter drop. More good news!!

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

4th Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments

14.0 8.9 arrow - DOWN  Down 36% Q4 saw a substantial drop in available inventory of homes for sale.  Each of the 12 market geographies we track had less months of inventory at the end of the 4th quarter than they did at mid-year. Call us for your neighborhood's inventory numbers.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Closed Homes" and "Current Actives"

Segment

4th Quarter 2008

4th Quarter 2009

Trend

Comments

Listings Closed

97 Days

98 Days

arrow UPUp 1% Time to go under contract has finally equaled 2008 days. However, for those awaiting a contract offer, times are extending - this likely a result of a big gap between the offered price and what the market is willing to pay. Pricing correctly is crucial to minimize "on the market" days.
Active Listing

136 Days

151 Days

arrow UPUp 11%

 

Total Triangle Average Price of Sold Homes

4th Quarter 2008

4th Quarter 2009

Trend

Comments

$232,900 $219,500 arrow - DOWN Down 6% Average prices fell in the Triangle.  Prices continued to soften 5 - 20% in oversupplied segments. Over 50% of the homes have lowered their prices from the original list price. Discounting does not appear to be worsening.

 

Showings

4th Quarter 2008 Ending

4th Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments 

115,750

126,253

arrow UP Up 9% We view showings as the best leading indicator of a turn around and the news is great! Showings are up 9%!!!!

 

Want More Info...

Do you wish to see an expert overview of our housing market?  We offer a "State of the Triangle Housing Market" presentation for your non profit, business, or private group.  The charts and graphs coupled with our related Realtor� stories always make for a highly informative and entertaining 30 minutes.  Please contact us to arrange - E-mail Al

 

 

Source data:Triangle MLS, Inc.,S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors
� Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2009/2010