Triangle Housing Market Report -- Issue 02-09

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

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Al’s Market Power Index: Buyer power has lessened to a "6" and Seller power has increased to a "4" largely due to increasing numbers of buyers in March at price segments below $250,000.

Growth, Growth:  Importantly, people and companies continue to migrate to the Triangle area. According to the Triangle Regional Partnership, new and expanding companies announced $1.3 billion in investments during 2008 for projects expected to create 5,972 new jobs. And from last quarter's report, Allied Van Lines recently reported that North Carolina had the 2nd highest number of net inbound migrations in 2008 - 2nd only to Texas.

Mortgage Rates:  Rates are in the 4.5% to 5.5% range

Market Overview 2009:  We continue to expect 2009 sales to be similar to 2008 but with a slower start.  In this report we offer several comments and data that suggest we may be at or near the bottom of our "down" real estate cycle. 

What's Ahead?:   While it is early and the "possible" recovery fragile, things do seem to be improving from the "crisis" level of late 2008. Yet, we must still sell the several thousand excess homes in inventory and high employment levels will likely impact the rate at which buyers return to our market. Before you decide to sell or buy, give us a call for up to the minute market information that should help you decide whether or not to take action and, if so, what actions to take. We follow the numbers daily, monthly, and quarterly.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?   Click to E-mail those to us

Need a Realtor� to help you with a specific property or transaction.  E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

1st Quarter 2008

1st Quarter 2009 

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.321 Billion $0.827 Billion arrow - DOWN  Down 37% Dollar and unit volumes continued weak. Additionally, Q1 2009 was down 20% from Q4 2008, probably a result of the low Q4 2008 buyer activity. Interestingly, March closings represented 45% of total Q1 closings, a higher percentage than we saw last year - perhaps an encouraging sign.
Total Number of Homes Sold 5,757 3,647 arrow - DOWN  Down 37%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

1st Quarter 2008 Ending

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments

19,379 17,462 arrow - DOWN   Down 9.4% The number of homes listed continues to decline from year-ago levels - this is good news and offers a glimmer of hope that we are at or near a bottom of our real estate market!

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

1st Quarter 2008 Ending

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments

7.9 8.5 arrow UP  Up 7.6% Months on hand was slightly higher than Q1 2008 but it was down 43% from Q4 2008 ending. This sequential quarterly reduction is another early indicator that we may be seeing a bottoming out of our market.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Under Contract" and "Current Actives"

Segment

 1st Quarter 2008

1st Quarter 2009

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments

Listings Under Contract

92 Days

106 Days

arrow UP  Up 15% Time to sell continues to extend and will likely remain high until we sell the excess inventory. Higher price points above $300,000 remain problematic with high inventory levels.
All Other Active Listings

121 Days

136 Days

arrow UP  Up 12%

 

Average Sale Price

County / Region

1st Quarter 2008

1st Quarter 2009

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments

Wake County

$259,171

$252,203

arrow - DOWN  Down 2.7% Average prices fell in both Wake County and the Triangle as a whole. This is consistent with our belief that prices have softened approximately 5%  in many of the market segments above $250,000.
Total Triangle

$234,554

$226,463

arrow - DOWN  Down 3.4%

 

Showings

1st Quarter 2008 Ending

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q1 2008

Comments 

211,856

175,127

arrow - DOWN  Down 17% Q1 showings remained well below Q1 of 2008. However, Q1 2009 was 51% higher than Q4 2008 and March showings were the highest since June of 2008.

 

More Interesting Info...

To see the annual number of closings in the total Triangle area for years 2000 to 2008 click this link:   Annual Number of Triangle Closings

We now offer an in-depth "State of Triangle Real Estate" presentation as an outgrowth of our work on this newsletter. Based on feedback from those who have seen it, we are confident that your non profit, business, or private group will enjoy and benefit from seeing this information. There is no selling involved and you will enjoy our practitioner stories.  Please contact us if you have interest.

 

 

Source data from Triangle MLS, Inc., Stacy P. Anfindsen of S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors   � Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2008