Triangle Housing Market Report�  -  1st Quarter 2010

 

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

buyers6.gif sell4.gif

 

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Al’s Market Power Index:  Buyer's power remains at "6" and Seller's power remains at "4" during 1st Quarter of 2010.  Buyers have the negotiating leverage and the numbers show they are using it

The Broad Trends:  The Triangle housing market is clearly in a state of recovery from the 2008/2009 recession

  • Sales were up in the quarter on both a unit and dollar basis
  • The number of homes placed under contract grew by over 50% during the quarter so we should see stronger sales in the months ahead
  • Showings are also a bright spot and point to stronger sales in the 2nd quarter
  • Inventories remain the most significant concern as they are up over last year and growing, most likely the result of pent up seller demand.  The months of inventory grew in every segment but one during the 1st Quarter.  
  • The media has repeatedly expressed concerns over an expected increase in foreclosures/short sales, etc. (we call them distressed sales).  Our MLS data indicates that while distressed property sales are up from 2007/2008 levels, they have held relatively steady for the past 5 quarters so the increase has yet to manifest itself in the 2010 MLS numbers.  

Mortgage Rates:  Rates for conforming loans remain in the 4.75% to 5.25% range

Appreciation/Prices:  The Federal Housing Finance Administration reports that home prices declined by 3.6% in 2009.  We believe an additional 1% decline in 2010 is possible, however, the level of inventory will ultimately determine the home price outcome for 2010 

2010 Estimate:  We are staying with our original estimate of 8% - 10% growth in sales from 2009

Before you decide to sell or buy, please call for the latest Triangle market information including the areas surrounding your properties. Pricing remains volatile. Closings are generally more difficult to complete and, as a result, it takes longer to close. Let our market knowledge, professionalism, and experience help you achieve your goals.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?

E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

1st Quarter 2009

1st Quarter 2010 

Trend

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $0.845 Billion $0.885 Billion arrow UP  Up 5% It was important for us to start stronger than we did in 2009 and we did! We are seeing a bit more activity in price points above $300,000.  
Total Number of Homes Sold 3,728 4,062 arrow UP  Up 9%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

1st Quarter 2010 Ending

Trend

Comments

17,761 17,959  arrow UP Up 1% Listings inventory is climbing steadily and remains an area of concern and risk. Should inventories continue their climb we will see more price degradation.

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

1st Quarter 2010 Ending

Trend

Comments

10.4 9.1 arrow - DOWN  Down 13% Though the 1st quarter was better than 2009, months on hand grew each month this year - the reverse of what we saw in 2009. Over 5,500 listings were added in March, the biggest number we've seen in the 39 months we are tracking.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Closed Homes" and "Current Actives"

Segment

1st Quarter 2009

1st Quarter 2010

Trend

Comments

Listings Closed

106 Days

106 Days

No Chg. Time to go under contract did not change from last year's first quarter. However, for those awaiting a contract offer, times extended somewhat. Market analysis shows that when priced correctly, homes sell reasonably fast. If priced high it can be a long wait. It also takes more showings to get a contract because buyers are looking at more homes.
Active Listing

136 Days

141 Days

arrow UPUp 4%

 

Total Triangle Average Price of Sold Homes

1st Quarter 2009

1st Quarter 2010

Trend

Comments

$226,400 $217,200 arrow - DOWN Down 4% Average prices fell again in the Triangle indicating both price softness and a continued movement to less expensive homes. The higher price segments continue to experience 15% to 20% price reductions from their perceived valuation peak over the past 3 years.

 

Showings

1st Quarter 2009 Ending

1st Quarter 2010 Ending

Trend

Comments 

175,262

196,336

arrow UP Up 12% Showings are the most accurate indicator of a turn around and the news is terrific with showings being up 12%!!  March was the best month since April 2008 with 80,484 showings!!

 

Want More...

If you would like to see a unique, in-depth report and expert analysis of the housing market, we are offering our "State of the Triangle Housing Market" presentation to select business and private groups.  E-mail Al to Request  

 

 

Source data:Triangle MLS, Inc.,S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors
� Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2009/2010