Triangle Housing Market Report -- Issue 03-09

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

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Al’s Market Power Index:  Buyer's power remains at "6" and Seller's power remains at "4" in the 2nd Quarter.  Buyers have the leverage in most but not all segments.

2 Different Markets for Power Ratings:  Of the 12 market geographies we track, 10 of them are now under supplied for homes below $250,000 with an average of only 4.2 months of inventory.  The over $800,000 segment has a 35 month supply with Wake Forest leading this segment at 5+ years of inventory.

Mortgage Rates:  Rates are in the 4.625% to 5.625% range

What We are seeing in our Business?  Activity levels and average transaction prices are down from 2008.  Corporate relocations have become a larger percentage of the business.  Buyers take longer to decide and are more aggressive on price.  Listings take longer to sell.  Our backlog indicates an up tick in the 2nd half of 2009.

The Good News:  Over the past 3 months the Triangle is closing nearly 2,000 homes per month—pretty good considering that in January we closed less than 1,000.  Importantly, the number of showings in June of 2009 was higher than June of 2008.

Schnaidt Real Estate's just completed 2009 full year forecast:

  • Total Triangle sales at $5 billion vs. $5.8 billion last year
  • Average Inventories down 10% from 2008
  • Appreciation likely to be slightly negative for 2009
  • The 2nd half will see a strengthening in the number of transactions

Before you decide to sell or buy, please give us a call for up to the minute market information.  Our data and practitioner based market knowledge will give you confidence in your decisions.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?

Wish to buy or sell a home?  E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

2nd Quarter 2008

2nd Quarter 2009 

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.904 Billion $1.306 Billion arrow - DOWN  Down 31% While dollar and unit volumes continued weaker than 2008, the comparisons were less negative. And, Q2 2009 was up 55% from Q1 2009! Monthly closings grew each month of the quarter.
Total Number of Homes Sold 7,815 5,829 arrow - DOWN  Down 25%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

2nd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments

19,594 17,440 arrow - DOWN   Down 11% Listings inventory dropped another 11% from Q2 2008, building on the 9% first quarter shrinkage.  The average number of new listings being added each month was down 1,091 from 2008 levels.  All good news!

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

2nd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments

9.4 11.6 arrow UP  Up 23.4% Though months on hand continued higher than 2008, we are beginning to see the number of under supplied markets grow. Over $300,000 there is a 1+ years supply but individual neighborhoods can vary greatly.  Call us for your neighborhood's inventory numbers.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Closed Homes" and "Current Actives"

Segment

 2nd Quarter 2008

2nd Quarter 2009

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments

Listings Closed

88.3 Days

100.7 Days

arrow UP  Up 15% Time to sell continues somewhat higher than 2008 and will likely remain higher as we sell off the excess inventory.
Active Listing

118 Days

133 Days

arrow UP  Up 13%

 

Average Sale Price

 

2nd Quarter 2008

2nd Quarter 2009

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments

Total Triangle $242,800 $222,900 arrow - DOWN  Down 8% Average prices fell in the Triangle. Prices continued to soften 5 - 20% in oversupplied segments.

 

Showings

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

2nd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend vs. Q2 2008

Comments 

228,719

217,394

arrow - DOWN  Down 5% While Q2 showings remained below Q2 of 2008, the exciting news is that the June showings were higher than June of 2008 showings.  We see this as a leading indicator of a turn around.

 

Want More Info...

For those who want to know more, we offer a "State of Triangle Real Estate" presentation for your non profit, business, or private group.  This 20+ graphs and charts coupled with our related Realtor� stories always make for an informative and entertaining 30 minutes.  Please contact us to arrange - E mail Al

 

 

Source data from Triangle MLS, Inc., Stacy P. Anfindsen of S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors   � Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2008