Triangle Housing Market Report�  - 2nd Quarter 2011

 

Triangle Housing Market Score

4

  Positives

4

  Negatives

 

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Al's Market Score:  Beginning this Quarter we are using a more focused Market Score algorithm that we also applied  retroactively to 2010. The Q2 2011 score is the best we have seen in a year, breaks a string of  2 consecutive 2 to 6 quarterly scores, and bests the full year 2010 score of 3 to 5

The Last of the Tax Incentive Comparisons:  Thankfully, this will be the last of the comparisons to a "tax incentive" period so the year to year comparisons will now become more meaningful. For Q2, sales comparisons remained strongly negative due to the 2010 incentives

Favorable Trends:  Inventory, May/June Showings, Average Prices, and Wake County new construction permits were all improved over Q2 2010 and do suggest a stronger 2nd half of the year for the Triangle housing market 

Mortgage Rates:  Rates remain in the 5% range. The loan approval process can be a challenging one, especially for jumbo loans.  Choose your lender carefully.  Call us for recomendations

Before You Decide to Sell or Buy:  For sellers, you have a choice of two pricing strategies and the one you choose will have a surprisingly large impact on your financial return and your days on market.  For buyers, the sellers' pricing strategy will influence how much purchase value you can achieve.  Call us for further insight into how to approach this market

In Summary:  The market is slowly but steadily improving. Our analysis indicates that distressed property sales are not significantly depressing all property values as some have suggested and we also find that discounting levels have remained roughly flat for 6 consecutive quarters. Single digit sales growth is possible in 2011 with much of any upside being driven by employment and confidence levels

Questions, Suggestions, and Help...

E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based

Triangle MLS Data

2nd Quarter 2010

2nd Quarter 2011

Trend

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.732 Billion $1.323 Billion Down 24% Finally, the last of the comparisons to a tax incentive period.  The market is stronger than these comparisons suggest. Stronger May and June showings indicate better 3rd Quarter activity ahead
Number of Homes Sold 7,591 5,845 Down 23%

 

Average Number of Active Listings & Months on Hand

2nd Quarter 2010 Average

2nd Quarter 2011 Average

Trend

Comments

18,436 17,457 Down 5.3% Inventories are clearly on the decline! While we have a long ways to go, this is the best news in this report.  The Months on Hand data is somewhat distorted to the high side due to tax incentive sales rates in 2010
 10.1 Months on Hand 12.0 Months on Hand  Up 18.8%
   6 Months of Inventory is Considered a Balanced Market

 

New Construction Permits for Wake County Only

2nd Quarter 2010

2nd Quarter 2011

Trend

Comments

1,010 1,164 Up 15.2% Permits surged in June bringing the quarter ahead of 2010. Time will tell if this is a developing trend

 

Average Days on Market for "Closed Homes" and "Current Actives"

Segment

2nd Quarter 2010

2nd Quarter 2011

Trend

"Comments

Listings Closed

100 Days

124 Days

Up 24% Our "too high" inventory levels will continue to drive high Days on Market keeping this a "buyers" market for the foreseeable future
Active Listing

133 Days

153 Days

Up 15%

 %

Total Triangle Average Price of Sold Homes

2nd Quarter 2010

2nd Quarter 2011

Trend

Comments

$227,600 $225,900 Down 0.8% This small decrease in average prices is likely due to an decrease in the number of higher priced home sales in the quarter vs. 2010 

 

Showings

2nd Quarter 2010

2nd Quarter 2011

Trend

Comments 

185,339

173,819

Down 6% Though showings were down for the quarter, May and June showings were up by about 9% vs. 2010 suggesting a stronger 2nd half than 2010 

 

Want to Know More...

For clients and prospective clients, we are pleased to share our "State of the Triangle Housing Market" presentation.  Investors, developers, lenders, and builders will find this professional market overview and analysis unique and helpful.   Contact Al  

 

 

Source data:Triangle MLS, Inc. and the National Association of Realtors
� Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2010/2011