Triangle Housing Market Report -- Issue 04-09

Al's Market Power Index

Buyer's Power

Seller's Power

buyers6.gif sell4.gif

 

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Al’s Market Power Index:  Buyer's power remains at "6" and Seller's power remains at "4" at the 3rd Quarter's end.  Buyers have the leverage in most but not all segments.

Two Distinct Markets in Power Ratings: 

  • The price segments under $200,000 - $250,000 have little excess inventory so the sellers have nearly as much negotiating power as the buyers.  
  • Those price segments from $250,000 - $1 million+ there continues to be over an over supply so buyers have more negotiating power. Above $400k the inventory problem is acute but slowly lessening.

Mortgage Rates:  Rates are in the 4.75% to 5.5% range

The News is Getting Better:  Our overall assessment is that the Triangle market is stable and slowly improving.  We continue to see reduced numbers of new listings, increased closings, and the resulting shrinkage of excess inventories.  Showings are also up versus last year as it seems more buyers are returning to the market.  Clearly, the $8,000 tax credit is also an important reason we are seeing increased activity. 

Schnaidt Real Estate's 2009 Full Year Forecast:

  • Total Triangle sales will be $5 billion vs. $5.8 billion last year
  • Average Months of Inventory will be down 10% from 2008
  • Appreciation will be negative for 2009
  • The 4th quarter of 2009 will be signifiicantly stronger than Q4 of 2008

Before you decide to sell or buy, please give us a call for up to the minute market information. Pricing is quite volatile these days so it is important for you to know the pricing dynamics before buying or selling.  Our data and practitioner based market knowledge will give you confidence in your decisions.  We are also providing complimentary home market evaluations to those who wish to know where there property values stand today.  Call or e-mail us.

Questions, Suggestions, and Help

Have questions or suggestions?

E-mail Al or Call Al at (919) 349-3900

 

Total Triangle Home Sales Based  on the Triangle MLS

Triangle MLS Data

3rd Quarter 2008

3rd Quarter 2009 

Trend

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $1.623 Billion $1.405 Billion arrow - DOWN  Down 13% This 3rd quarter will be the last of the negative comparisons this year. We believe sales in Q4 of 09 will exceed Q4 of 2008 by 1,000 homes.  
Total Number of Homes Sold 6,781 6,294 arrow - DOWN  Down 7%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

3rd Quarter 2008 Ending

3rd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments

19,493 16,531 arrow - DOWN   Down 15% Listings inventory dropped 15% from Q3 2008, exceeding the 11% second quarter drop. YTD the number of new listings going on the market is down about 20% from '08 and '07 levels. All good news!!

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

3rd Quarter 2008 Ending

3rd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments

11.2 9.5 arrow - DOWN  Down 15% Each of the 12 market geographies we track had less months of inventory at the end of the 3rd quarter than they did at the end of the 2nd quarter. The average decline in inventories was about 20% from June 30 to Sept. 30. Call us for your neighborhood's inventory numbers.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Closed Homes" and "Current Actives"

Segment

 3rd Quarter 2008

3rd Quarter 2009

Trend vs. Q3 2008

Comments

Listings Closed

86.3 Days

101.7 Days

arrow UPUp 18% Time to sell continues significantly higher than 2008, a result of the excess inventory. It is also taking buyers longer to decide, likely due to the greater number of properties they have to look at, and their desire to be very careful in making the decision. Pricing correctly is crucial to minimize "on the market" days.
Active Listing

121 Days

141 Days

arrow UPUp 17%

 

Total Triangle Average Price of Sold Homes

2nd Quarter 2008

2nd Quarter 2009

Trend

Comments

$239,100 $222,500 arrow - DOWN Down 7% Average prices fell in the Triangle.  Prices continued to soften 5 - 20% in oversupplied segments. Over 50% of the homes have lowered their prices from the original list price. Discounting also continues to be 5 to 10 points higher than normal. The good news? Discounting does not appear to be worsening!

 

Showings

3rd Quarter 2008 Ending

3rd Quarter 2009 Ending

Trend

Comments 

173,169

192,943

arrow UP Up 11% We see showings as the best leading indicator of a turn around and the news is great! Showings are up 11%!!!!

 

Want More Info...

For those who want to know more, we offer a "State of Triangle Real Estate" presentation for your non profit, business, or private group.  This 20+ graphs and charts coupled with our related Realtor� stories always make for a highly informative and entertaining 30 minutes.  Please contact us to arrange - E-mail Al

 

 

Source data:Triangle MLS, Inc.,S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors
� Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2008/2009