Triangle Housing Market Report -- Issue 03-08

Al's Market Index

For Buyers

For Sellers

buyers7.gif sell4.gif

 

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Welcome to the third issue of our Triangle Housing Market Report� where our objective is to provide unique and otherwise unavailable market insights.  This issue compares the 2nd quarters of 2008 and 2007.  Al's Market Index, which rates the relative negotiating power of the two groups, remains at a 7 for Buyers and a 4 for Sellers for the third consecutive report.

Due to the strength of the 2007 first half, the comparisons remain unfavorable. Sales continued at a lower rate than 2007.  Inventories remained higher but seem to have leveled off.  Though average prices grew slightly, we are seeing pricing softness in the higher inventory segments where sellers are more heavily discounting to get to a deal.

Sellers:  Price your home realistically, insist on high quality marketing, and consider buyer incentives, particularly if you are competing with new homes. The percentage of sellers reducing list prices remains unusually high.  Over 7,600 homes sold in Q2 so don't be afraid to put yours on the market - the good ones are selling. 

Buyers:  Have a good process for sorting through the many choices and do careful pricing due diligence.  Consider transportation costs as one of your criteria.  Now is the time to buy!

For those considering both:  While your home could sell for less, it is quite possible that you will get more home for your dollar on the buy side, particularly in the higher price segments.

Questions, Suggestions, and Requests

Total Triangle Home Sales Based on the Triangle Multiple Listing Service(MLS)

Triangle MLS Data

2nd Quarter 2007

2nd Quarter 2008 

Trend vs. Q2 2007

Comments

Total Sales Dollars $2.533 Billion $1.868 Billion arrow - DOWN  Down 26% The comparisons will get less negative in the third Quarter.  It is unclear how much of an effect the slower local economy will have on any potential housing rebound.
Total Number of Homes Sold 10,604 7,678 arrow - DOWN  Down 28%

 

Total Number of Active Listings in the Triangle MLS

2nd Quarter 2007 Ending

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend vs. Q2 2007

Comments

16,582 18,733 arrow UP   Up 13% The number of active listings has remained relatively constant for all of 2008. The slowing of new home construction has been a key driver.

 

Triangle Total Months Inventory on Hand

2nd Quarter 2007 Ending

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend vs. Q2 2007

Comments

5.2 7.6 arrow UP  Up 46% In Wake county, Wake Forest has the most inventory at 9 months supply with the $300,000+ segments being the slowest. Cary and Garner have the least supply at 4 and 5 months respectively.
6 Months of Inventory is considered a balanced market.

 

Days on Market for "Under Contract" and "Current Actives"

 Segment

Q2-2007 Average

Q2 2008 Average

Trend

Comments

Listings Under Contract 74 Days 86 Days arrow UP  Up 16% Homes that went under contract did so in an average of 86 days, while those still awaiting a buyer are at 123 days and counting.
All Other Active Listings 104 Days 123 Days arrow UP  Up 18%

 

Average Sale Price

County / Region

2nd Quarter 2007

2nd Quarter 2008

Trend

Comments

Wake County

$263,093

$268,836

arrow UP  Up 2.2% Average prices for the region continue to grow modestly.
Total Triangle

$238,401

$243,828

arrow UP  Up 2.1%

 

Showings

2nd Quarter 2007 Ending

2nd Quarter 2008 Ending

Trend

Comments

271,407

228,719

arrow - DOWN  Down 16% There are still plenty of buyers looking.  They are just taking longer to decide or not deciding at all.  A lack of confidence seems an important factor in buyers' reticence.

 

Interesting Charts and Info

The link below will present a graph of active listings and months of inventory.  Special requests for postings gladly considered....

Active Listings vs. Months on Hand

 

Source data from Triangle MLS, Inc., Stacy P. Anfindsen of S.M.A. Publications, Inc., and the National Association of Realtors   � Schnaidt Real Estate, Inc. 2008